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Why Obama and Huckabee win in Iowa

Surprised?  I’m not.  In fact, I’m a little annoyed that I didn’t write my prediction of this result earlier today.  Yeah, yeah, maybe I wasn’t so sure.  But here’s what I was thinking…

Obama

• His mother is from Kansas
• He is not a descendent from American slaves, so doesn’t feel America owes him something in the way that those who did do.  This makes white Americans feel more comfortable with him.
• His wife is black American.  I don’t know if she is descended from American slaves – I suspect yes.  In any case, being married to a black woman makes black women across this country feel better and I suspect also makes black men feel better.
• He represents moving forward; Clinton represents the past and all its sordid baggage. 
• Liberals love his international, eclectic background.
• Intellectuals love his thinking about issues.
• Fighters like how he’s punched back against the Clinton spin machine (cocaine, wanting to be president in kindergarten…)

Huckabee

• He’s from Arkansas (right next door to Kansas – anybody else notice that?? Okay, he’s from down by Texas, but it’s still closer to Iowa than New York City, Boston, Salt Lake, or Arizona) 
• He’s a Christian, and Iowans don’t think Mormonism is Christian.  They just don’t.  Sorry Mitt.
• He’s taken populist positions on things like health care that lower-income Republicans seem to be okay with.
• He’s taken compassionate positions about crime that younger Christians seem to be gravitating to.  (Doesn’t think you should punish people forever, that punishment should be focused on correcting the behavior.)
• People (well, Midwesterners) think he’s ‘genuine,’ meaning he doesn’t say things just to get elected.  And for many, that is more important than what you actually say.

So, who is going to win?  Everyone thinks it’s going to be a long hard struggle, but I don’t think so on the Democratic side.  I’m going to call it right now – I think Obama is going to be the nominee. 

On the Republican side, I don’t think it’s as clear.  I have a hard time imagining that the states with large populations are going to go for Huckabee’s religion.  Mitt’s a flip flopper.  Giuliani’s a fast talkin’ east coast, shall I say, embellisher?  McCain?  Maybe on the coasts, but not in the center.  I see everyone beating it out for months.  And when they’re done, they’ll be trashed and no one will want them.

Wild card?  Bloomberg.  Things could get very interesting…

[UPDATE] – just found this excerpt in The New Republic on why Obama won in Iowa – he’s a midwesterner. 

“But when you listen to Obama, the substance of thinking, the cadence of his reasoning, his unassuming acceptance of people, you hear a Midwesterner.

‘What I see in Iowa are a lot the qualities I love in Illinois,’ Obama told me in an interview. ‘I think there’s a truth to the idea that there’s a Midwestern sensibility and that people don’t like a lot of fuss, don’t like a lot of pretense, and I think are much more likely to think about things pragmatically and how do you get the job done as opposed to having a lot of ideology driving decision-making. And I think that’s what America needs right now.’”

This was taken from this article in the Iowa Independent by Douglas Burns.  Burns thinks Obama is going to get the whole enchilada.  I think he might be right.