causeandeffectworld.com Blog

A Turning Point

For 26 years, America has been voting for Republicans, and the conservative agenda has carried the day, with the following themes:

Foreign Policy

• Middle East - Since America was the only superpower, we should seize the opportunity to reshape the Middle East to our advantage, secure the oil resources, install democracy. 
• Europe - Allies are nice, but unnecessary given our military strength.  Proceed unilaterally if they do not fall in line. 
• Latin America - Only pay attention if they are an irritant, i.e. immigrants from Mexico, aggressive rhetoric from Venezuela.
• China - Pressure them to stop supporting their exchange rate to make American exports more competitive.  Occasionally mention human rights abuses.
• Africa – Does it exist?  Darfur? 

Domestic Policy

• Education – Pass a law to transform education, but do not fund it.  Brother of President has better approach in Florida. 
• Tax – Cut taxes for wealthiest.  When economic growth increases, give credit to the tax cut while ignoring the boom in housing market fueled by low interest rates which has put cash into economy as homeowners cash out and take on more debt.  Ignore national debt and growing economic inequality.
• Debt – Ignore national debt.  Cut social programs for most vulnerable citizens to reduce debt while cutting taxes on wealthiest.  Smile at your kids, who will be paying the debt.
• Balance of payments – Don’t mention that we buy more from strangers than we sell.  Or that China is lending us the money.  Or that one of our largest exports is Hollywood movies.  Which is the root of all that is bad in the country.
• Citizen contribution to war – Shop!  (buying more of that stuff we buy from strangers, which hurts our balance of payments).
• Gay marriage – Predict the breakdown of our society if gay marriage is allowed without providing any concrete evidence that it would happen other than it is new.
• Environment – Use it.  Scientists will figure out how to fix anything we break (not scientists studying climate change, who of course can’t be trusted).
• Embryonic stem cell research – Disseminate incorrect information about the possibilities of adult stem cell research.  Limit research and funding.  Ignore advice of country’s top scientists.
• Abortion – Support efforts to limit availability of abortion within the United States and internationally.

If the polls and predictions are right, this election will be a turning point, signaling a new direction for the country.  Democrats are poised to take over the House of Representatives, increase number of seats in Senate, and win many state Governorships and congressional races. 

What changed?

The tipping point seemed to be Katrina – Americans saw government playing a critical role in the effort — and failing miserably at all levels.  Before Katrina, criticism of the Bush administration was muted in some quarters out of loyalty to the troops and country during a time of war.  However, criticism of the Katrina disaster required no such restraint, and it was fast and furious.  The fury quickly spilled over to other arenas, including the war in Iraq.

What themes will be prevalent going forward?  Here are some thoughts…

• Divided government - Americans will not permit one-party rule at the federal level again for years to come.  If Dems get both House and Senate, look for a Republican President in two years.  If Repubs keep Senate, Presidential race is a toss-up.
• New realism, or ‘anti-hubrism’ - Americans are beginning to see that the ‘war on terror’ is not a conventional one, that our approach must be ‘unconventional,’ and we cannot be distracted by ‘opportunities’ to reshape the world, like we were in Iraq. 
• Allies are good - Iraq shows that America’s military can break countries.  We are learning the hard way that it cannot build them.  We need allies to help with military action, post-war reconstruction, multi-lateral relations, business partners.  Condi has begun this process, but the Bush administration has no political capital to use with potential allies, so the process will be slow until we have a new President in Jan ’09.  The era of ‘you are with us or you are against us’ is over.
• Embracing globalization - While globalization is inevitable, the less contact people have with outsiders, the more they are likely to resist globalization.  Furthermore, the more people are negatively affected by the global economy, the more they will resist.  Americans are coming to understand the inevitability of globalization, but it will take leadership to prepare the country to embrace it and be competitive.
• Security through engagement - The more economically and socially integrated countries are with each other, the less likely they are to be at war.  Through trade – globalization – we reduce the risk of war.  To trade, you must establish mutual trust and respect. The hard-nosed rhetoric of the Bush administration and hard-right anti-immigrationists does not promote these relationships.  The business community will continue to push back to protect their international interests.
• Morality redefined - The majority of Americans want to be free to make their own moral choices on social issues, such as gay marriage and abortion.  This is consistent with the rest of the world – countries with flourishing economies practice the two-foundation morality described in our post Who are more Moral?  Liberals or Conservatives? which is focused on harm and justice/reciprocity more consistent with liberals and in some cases libertarians.  See Moral Intuitions in the comments.

Stay tuned.